Tuesday, November 02, 2004

5:00PM Election Update From The Hedgehog Central War Room


5:00 P.M.

Comfort Food Monitor:
Lays Potato Chips
2 Advil

Los Angeles- John Fund, an editor at the Wall Street Journal, stepped boldly foward with predictions today that may give Hedgehogs a reason to live until more results are available:


Popular vote: Bush 50.0%, Kerry 48.5%, Nader 1.0%, others 0.5%.

Electoral vote: Bush 296, Kerry 242.

Battleground states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin for Bush;

Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania for Kerry.

The polls are pretty consistent. Mr. Bush is at 48% or above in all of them that push leaners. Now that Zogby has reported a tied race on Monday night, no national poll of consequence has Mr. Kerry in the lead. (Marist has him up 49% to 48%, but it would be historic if Marist were the only pollster to call the election correctly.) More than half have the race in a tie, and a couple have Bush in front by a few. I would normally give the race to Mr. Bush by three points, but I forecast a slightly tighter race because the few undecided votes are likely to break in Mr. Kerry's direction since they have resisted going with the incumbent for so long.

Sonja Eddings Brown


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