A Wee Bit of Debate Polling Analysis from Your Friendly Hedgehog

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The Gallup poll about last night's debate may be a little early to be completely meaningful, but it certainly contains some interesting nuggets. It is clear that Kerry "won" the debate on style points. It also seems clear that very few minds were changed, which is a relief. (That reminds me of Newt Gingrich's teaching: "Liberals love a good speech more than they love a good policy." For the left, style is everything.)

Here are the interesting aspect of the poll:

2. Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think
did the better job in the debate: John Kerry or George W. Bush?

Kerry wins, 52-37%.

3. How has your opinion of John Kerry been affected by the debate? Is
your opinion of Kerry more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed
much?

More favorable, 46%
Less favorable 13%.
Not changed much 41%

So Kerry's supporters have to be very happy about that. He did himself some good.

4. How has your opinion of George W. Bush been affected by the debate? Is
your opinion of Bush more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed
much?

More favorable 21%
Less favorable 17%
Not changed much
62%

Hard to say whether this is a positive or a negative.

5. Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please
tell me if you think John Kerry or George W. Bush would better handle the
situation in
Iraq.

Kerry 43%
Bush 54%

Not much change here at all.

6. Who do you trust more to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief of
the military: John Kerry, or George W.
Bush?

Kerry 44%
Bush 54%

No change at all here from past numbers. Kerry's people can't be happy about this.

6. Who do you trust more to handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief of
the military: John Kerry, or George W.
Bush?

Kerry 44%
Bush 54%

Again, no change. Do you see a trend developing here?

D. Was more
believable

Kerry 45%
Bush 50%

Holding firm.

E. Was more likeable

Kerry 41%
Bush 48%

F. Demonstrated he is tough enough for the
job

Kerry 37%
Bush 54%

Kerry's folks have to be very disappointed with this.

So, my hopeful analysis (and I acknowledge that I know nothing) is that Kerry acquitted himself well on style points but did not help himself very much on the big issues that determine how people will vote. The president could do himself a lot of good by handling the next debate better. Expectations for GWB will be lower now that Kerry has been "exposed" as pretty good at debating and much smoother than the president (which is kind of like saying ice cream is smoother than cottage cheese-- a truism, but it has nothing to do with which is better for you).

It will be interesting to watch the mainstream media spin this. They want a good race, so as to make the story more interesting, and they also generally want Kerry to win. So be prepared for a lot of "Kerry is back in the race and surging" stories over the next few days.