U.S. Naval Weakness Invites War With China

If naval warfare between China and the United States broke out today in the Pacific, China almost certainly would prevail in the initial battles.  That would increase the likelihood of nuclear war, because the United States might feel pressed to respond with nuclear weapons to an impending defeat, or China might decide to act pre-emptively to prevent American retaliation.  In a longer war, the United States might eventually prevail (as it did in the Pacific in World War II, after initial Japanese victories), especially if Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, and perhaps even Vietnam (traditionally an enemy of imperialist China) were fighting with us and against China.  But any such war would be incredibly costly in lives and treasure.  Taiwan, certainly, South Korea, and perhaps even Japan, might have to endure Chinese invasion.

Overwehlming American military strength, especially in naval forces, probably would deter China.  Unfortunately, our navy has shrunk from a high of 660 ships under President Reagan, to only 297 vessels today.  Numbers do not tell the entire tale, but sadly the quality and preparedness of our naval forces also have declined, as detailed in today's WSJ [America’s Naval Strategy Is at Sea - WSJ].  In contrast, China has been rapidly building us its navy, and today has the largest navy in the world. Rather than slowing down, China is accelerating the pace of ship building.  It recently commissioned three warships in a single day. [China simultaneously commissions three warships on Navy anniversary (defensenews.com)]

Strength deters war.  The appearance of weakness invites conflict.  The U.S. and its SEATO allies much reverse the current decline in forces and readiness.