Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Will The Immigration Debate of 2006 Do for The National GOP What Prop 187 Did for The Calfiornia GOP?

In 1994, Governor Pete Wilson got behind Proposition 187, descibed accurately here as

a ballot initiative designed to deny illegal immigrants
social services, health care, and public education. It
was introduced . . . as the Save Our State initiative. A number of other organizations were involved in bringing it to the voters. It passed with 59% of the vote, but was overturned by a federal court.

I remember being torn over how to vote on this measure. Jack Kemp opposed it, as did other "big tent" Republicans. In the final few days, in massive rallies against Prop 187, Mexican flags were everywhere. I made an emotional decision (a way of voting I hope I will never repeat) and voted for 187.

Even after the law was struck down by a pair of federal judges, the long-term impact of 187 was that the GOP (and Wilson) looked like Latino-bashers. Call it unfair, but that's what happened. Many analysts think the California GOP has never recovered.

Is the national GOP following the same path in 2006? Called As Seen brings this report from Time's Joe Klein to our attention:

There was some hope among Republican strategists, especially Karl Rove, that this formula might also work with the rapidly growing Latino vote and guarantee
a g.o.p. majority in perpetuity. "Rove had a point. My people are very conservative on social values," says Congressman Luis Gutierrez, a Chicago Democrat. "We're family oriented, a lot of small-business owners. But the Republicans have blown that opportunity now. Even the Pentecostals are sending busloads to the protests. Spanish-language radio is announcing the vote on every amendment to the Senate immigration bill. You've got a generation of young Latino citizens whose first political impression is that Republicans are people who want to deport their parents."

Now, Klein's a left-leaning writer, so we need a few grains of salt as we read his analysis. As for Congressman Gutierrez, we need a bucket of salt-- he is, after all, a Democrat and has every reason to make statements putting the Republicans in a bad light.

I just hope he's wrong.

Update: Commenter Tommy thinks it's demonstrably false that Pete Wilson's support of Prop 187 hurt the GOP here. Here's the link to the article on which Tommy relies for support. The author, Steve Sailer, also writes for the VDare blog, which I find a little scary. Take a look at VDare and decide if Sailer has more or less credibility because he's associated with it. Also, take a look at this post by Tacitus, one of the founders of RedState. If you're like me you'll squirm a little as you read about Mr. Sailer's outlook on life and race. (Thanks to commenter Harold Hutchison for that one.)

It seems to me undeniable that Latinos will be an important demographic group going forward. They're natural Republican voters: They are having large familes; they are overwhelmingly Catholic and would tend to side with Republicans on values issues; and they are hard-working and want a piece of the American dream. Republicans (and those conservatives willing to call themselves Republicans) ought to be asking themselves whether that growing segment of the electorate is coming our way or not, and whether a very hard line on what to do about illegals already here will attract Latinos or drive them away. Steve Sailer doesn't offer any evidence about that question.


Anonymous tommy said...

Your analysis of the harm done by Proposition 187 is false. That this ridiculous myth is still promoted is absurd. Steve Sailer has an accurate breakdown:


Posted by tommy

Tuesday, May 23, 2006 5:27:00 PM  
Blogger LonewackoDotCom said...

Here's my article on the 187_canard , and here's my article on the mythical_Hispanic_vote.

I'd also suggest looking into who exactly was behind blocking 187. One of them was Mexico's own presidente Zedillo. 

Posted by TLB

Tuesday, May 23, 2006 8:07:00 PM  
Blogger Powder Tracks and Fever said...

Well last week, as an Native US Citizen of Hispanic origin I looked into this so "" stemming from Proposition 187 Wilson Effect   ! I honestly do not remember how I voted but because I'm a Physician and saw first hand the way many many immigrants of all ethnic groups including Afghani's abused it I think I supported it. While in training I had recent Afghani immigrants come into my clinic at UCI Medical Center asking me to fill out Social Security Disability Papers so that a 70 y.o. mother could get Social Security Disability Income! I explained that she was not disabled but just suffering from age related physiologic changes. Furthermore, she had not paid into the system, as they had only been in the States 3 years. The man was an articulate and savvy wheeler dealer type and wanted to wine and dine me and entice me with his drop dead Gorgeous daughter, who accompanied them. It was pathetic! I witnessed countless immigrant workers milking the Workman's Comp. System on the advice of their Lawyers and fellow workers. Well I did my homework and sourced an opinion on my post yesterday, regarding the "Wilson Effect". Matthew Dowd was the leading Bush-Cheney campaign strategist in 2000, who has famously remarked that "As a realistic goal, we have to get somewhere between ... 38 [percent] to 40 percent of the Hispanic vote" in 2004 for the GOP to be successful, these polls are very bad news indeed). He has written about this very issue on his website specific issue!here is his take: "The closeness of the 2000 election in Florida was foreshadowed by the non-Cuban Latino population growth in the central Florida areas of Tampa Bay and Orlando. In 1988, when former President Bush won Florida by more than 20 points, 2 out of every 3 Latinos in the state were of Cuban descent, a solid Republican bloc. In 2000, 2 out of 3 Latinos in Florida were non-Cuban. This fact alone moved Florida into the swing column in 2000.

So why has Texas not followed the example of California in becoming more Democratic as its Latino population grows? A big part of the reason is that Texas voters, across ethnic lines, are more conservative than California voters. A further factor MAY be lingering hostility among Latinos in California towards former Republican governor Pete Wilson. The success or failure of potential Republican gubernatorial candidate Richard Riordan, who had tremendous success among Latino voters as mayor of Los Angeles, may show whether the "Wilson effect " has been exorcised.
But an important and neglected difference between the two states is that nearly 45 percent of Latino voters in California live in union households, while in Texas that figure is only 6 percent. Union households are overwhelmingly Democratic. This helps explain how President Bush was able to get 43 percent of the Latino vote in Texas and only 29 percent in California. Unfortunately for Republicans, the same California pattern of union membership among Latinos holds true in Nevada and Florida as well."

"MAY" is the operative word! I believe this so called "Wilson Effect" has been driven by the Media to try and alienate the Hispanics against the GOP. My wife is Hispanic and a Nurse and I'm Hispanic and 12 years ago we realized that HEALTH CARE was being scammed by many and today California is in having crushing financial deficits that Gov. Arnold is trying to reel in via Workman's Compensation Reform! I saw it coming years ago. I think Dowd is right, as Immigrants become more affluent and not under the influence of Unions they'll gravitate to the GOP for the reasons Lowell mentions in his piece. Furthermore, the

Hispanic Voter's Courtship can be traced to President Reagan and beyond! President Ronald Regan was the first GOP leader to recognize the electoral significance of there Hispanic vote from Time Magazine: "In 1980 Ronald Reagan reached out to Lionel Sosa(an ad-agency owner, Sosa helped U.S. Senator John Tower win his 1978 re-election bid with 37% of the Hispanic vote; no Republican in Texas had ever won more than 8%."It's an insight Ronald Reagan gave me," says Sosa, who has worked on six presidential campaigns. "He told me Latinos are Republican. They just don't know it yet." With Sosa's help, George W. Bush snared an estimated 40% of Latino voters in 2004, a huge jump from Bob Dole's 21% in 1996!" Another interesting article on the GOP Plan is in Hispanic Magazine article written in 1999 about the Bush/Cheney campaign entitled "Swaying to a Latin Beat-Presidential Hopefuls Pursue the Hispanic Vote".

In summary I think this so called Wilson Effect is driven by the Democrats and its media wing, the MSM. It may have an impact in California because of its Unions and the State's Liberalism. However, it sure has not affected this Hispanic Voter nor my Family nor most Legal Foreign Immigrants! Now that Presidente "the Sly" Fox is here in the USA lets tell him to get his House in order so that one tenth of his people do not have to escape from Mexico!


Posted by Francisco Xavier Yubero aka "Doc"

Tuesday, May 23, 2006 8:51:00 PM  
Anonymous tommy said...

Sorry Hedgehog,

You may not like many of VDARE's contributors' conclusions about race and intelligence correlations, but I dislike it when people cannot come up with fact-based refutations to apparently valid arguments and have to engage in ad hominem attacks instead.

Actually, to your point though, Steve Sailer and other contributors at VDARE have repeatedly pointed out two things in many of their articles concerning Hispanic voters:

(1) Regardless of what the Republicans do, short of moving towards a Leftist/Socialist agenda on government spending, Latinos are likely to vote Democratic. To the extent that Republicans become leftists, they are of little value to conservatives. In the long-term (several more decades), the Republicans are only committing political suicide. They are not, as you state, natural Republican voters. Their pro-life sentiments are easily trumped by the fact that they, to a far greater degree than whites, are supporters of the Big Government model of doing things:


(2) Latinos have such a low rate of voter turnout compared to whites (and especially white conservatives) that even when whites are a demographic minority in places like California, they are likely to hold a substantial political grip for decades to come. The only thing Republicans do by supporting the reduction of the United States to another one more highly stratified Third World nation by the massive importation of a Latino underclass is alienating their white constituents prematurely.

There are many articles on Sailer's blog and VDARE that address these political realities. Look around on Steve Sailer's blog (isteve.com) and VDARE and see if you don't agree with their conclusions (at least on those matters not concerning the race/intelligence debate).

I also recommend checking out parapundit.com and reading some of the immigration-related articles on that site.


Posted by tommy

Tuesday, May 23, 2006 8:53:00 PM  
Anonymous tommy said...

One other, must read article:


Posted by tommy

Tuesday, May 23, 2006 9:13:00 PM  
Blogger Harold C. Hutchison said...

For what one of the founders of RedState.com wrote on Mr. Sailer, three good links are at this post at tacitus.org . 

Posted by Harold C. Hutchison

Wednesday, May 24, 2006 6:36:00 AM  
Anonymous tommy said...

Harold C. Hutchison,

Sounds like more "thinly veiled" ad hominem attacks on Sailer. These attacks on Sailer are rather silly. I didn't go through everything RedState wrote but I did take a look at one of his links - namely, the first one. I noticed that the founders of RedState were quite upset about an essay in which Sailer says blacks are better 'trash-talkers' than whites.

If you read the actual essay, you'll see that Sailer gives blacks credit not only for being great 'trash talkers' but also great oratorians and preachers. Anybody, who has listened to a black preacher knows how effective and powerful their style can be. And no, I would have a hard time imagining a white men attempting to duplicate that particular style of oratory - they just wouldn't be very effective, I believe.

Frankly, while I don't agree with everything Sailer has to say, I do appreciate the fact that he can bring up such realities as the obvious genetically-based differences in athletic performance between races. This is something the mainstream media and politically correct people on both sides of the political aisle (including sports writers, as Sailer points out) would rather pretend doesn't exist.

Posted by tommy

Wednesday, May 24, 2006 7:45:00 AM  

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